Friday, January 05, 2007

Wild Card Weekend

SATURDAY

1) Indy -7 vs. K.C. - I’ve got to admit that when I first saw this matchup, only one thing came to mind: Larry Johnson might run for 250 yards! And, of course, that led me to not only think that the Chiefs would beat the spread, but that they would also win the game. Then, for the first time all season, I actually sat down and took the time to research a matchup before going off and making a bold prediction. Truth is, I used to believe that doing too much research ended up complicating things and leading me to overthink matchups. Well, after a season of no research and embarassing results, I figure it’s time to go back to the old way. Not that it was good, but it was better than 71-86-6. So, what does the research tell me about the Colts and Chiefs? First of all, that deplorable run defense of the Colts hasn’t been that bad at home. For the season the Colts are giving up 173 yards/game on the ground, but only 146.3 yards/game at home. Still not good, but better. Now, consider the fact that at home the Colts have averaged 261 yards through the air and 29.6 points/game. In turn, the Chiefs have given up 216 yards/game through the air on the road, and they have have averaged less than 17 points on the road. What does all this mean? Well, it would appear that at home the Colts offense is awesome, and their defense isn’t horrible. And, at the same time, on the road, the Chiefs pass defense is bad and their offense isn’t so hot either. Couple that with the fact that this is the one year that people aren’t expecting big things from Peyton Manning and the Colts in the playoffs, and I just feel like they are going to explode on Saturday. I’m looking for the Colts to put up 40+, so you might as well take Over 51 as well.

2) Dallas +3 @ Seattle - Seattle has big problems in their secondary with three key injuries, and Tony Romo kind of sucks, but Terry Glenn and T.O. will probably have a field day. Even though they have been struggling recently, the Cowboys have still been averaging over 25 points/game in the last three games. The problem, however, is that they have been giving up 30 over the same time. So, the question becomes: can the Cowboys stop the Seahawks? Well, take it from a man that watched Matt Hasselback cost him a fantasy football championship, the answer is “yes”. Take the Cowboys on the money line.


SUNDAY

1) NYJ +8.5 @ New England – I’m so paranoid that the Jets are actually going to win this game that I can’t even talk about it rationally. Seriously, is this possible? I mean, it is Belichick, Brady, and the Pats, right? Well, the way my sports life is going right now, you should put the house on the Jets and the money line.

2) Philly -7 vs. NYG - You only need to know two things about this game: 1) Philly averages 282 yards/game passing at home, and the Giants AVERAGE giving up 269 yards/game passing on the road; and 2) I’m cheering for the Giants. Given those two facts, wager on the Giants at your own extreme risk.

By the way, some of you may be scratching your heads and saying, “how in the world does he actually think two road dogs are going to win outright in the playoffs?” Well, here’s a little fact you might find handy: Over the past two years, the home teams are 2-6 in the Wild Card round. So much for home cooking!